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Der folgende Artikel ist in der Online-Zeitschrift “Integrale Perspektiven” IP-2020: Integrale Politik erschienen: https://www.integralesforum.org/integrale-perspektiven/2020/198-ip-04-2020-integrale-politik/5275-die-politik-der-kleinen-schritte-sensemaking-und-kollektive-veraenderung-unter-komplexen-bedingungen-von-anne-caspari

Die Politik der kleinen Schritte: Sensemaking und kollektive Veränderung unter komplexen Bedingungen. Von Anne Caspari (LiFT)

Logo Integrale PerspektivenDie zwei großen Krisen unserer Zeit, Covid-19 und der Klimawandel, sind Indikatoren für das generelle Scheitern unserer globalisierten, abhängig und zerbrechlich gemachten Systeme. Gleichzeitig zeigt sich die Politik nach wie vor in der Versuchung, Komplexität und Unsicherheit mit unzulässiger Vereinfachung, Verflachung und Gewissheitsversprechen zu begegnen.

Die Krise der Verwirrung

Kollektiv befinden wir uns in einer Phase tiefer Verunsicherung und Verwirrung. Im Moment scheint es, dass sich unsere eigenen Interessen auf vielen verschiedenen Ebenen unseres Arbeits- und Privatlebens selbst widersprechen. Wir müssen zwischen unabdingbaren Grundwerten abwägen, und es scheint, als stünde Arbeit gegen Gesundheit, Gesundheit gegen Freiheit, Aktivismus gegen Ökologie, Wirtschaftsinteressen gegen Überlebenschancen, Jung gegen Alt, Ethik gegen Pragmatismus.

Es handelt sich nicht so sehr um eine kollektive Identitätskrise, wie sie beispielsweise bei der Flüchtlingsthematik in Deutschland aufkam. Diese aktuelle Krise geht tiefer; es ist eine multiple Sinnkrise, sie betrifft jede und jeden, betrifft alle Aspekte unseres Seins. Und damit nicht genug: Haben wir einen Sinn gefunden, entgleitet er uns gleich wieder. Etwas, das in einem Kontext Sinn macht, bewirkt im nächsten Kontext das Gegenteil. Soziale Distanz als notwendige Maß-nahme auf der einen Seite lässt auf der anderen Seite zu, dass alte, kranke Menschen allein sterben. Die aus Sicht der Pandemie sinnvolle Distanz kostet durch die Unterbrechung globaler Werteketten möglicherweise ein Vielfaches an Menschenleben durch Hunger und andere sekundäre und tertiäre Folgeerscheinungen. Wir stecken in einer nie vorher dagewesenen Krise der Verwirrung: Wir schaffen es nicht, das, was um uns herum geschieht, in Echtzeit sinnvoll zu verarbeiten, um handeln zu können.

Dieser Crisis of Sensemaking[1] [2] sind wir, sind unsere Politiker derzeit nur unzureichend gewachsen. Neue Politik, im besten, integralen Sinne, muss lernen, auf die Phänomene rund um Verwirrung auf der einen, und Sensemaking auf der anderen Seite zu achten, insbesondere wenn Menschen von der den Entwicklungen innewohnenden Mehrdeutigkeit überfordert sind. Hier, auf dieser Ebene, wohnen die Ängste, Sorgen, Widersprüche, Werte, Ideen, Frustrationen, Schatten, Wünsche und Begehren. Werden sie nicht gehört, suchen sich diese Energien Auswege, die mittlerweile allzu bekannt sind.

Was also, wenn man einmal wirklich, tiefer, hinhören würde? Was sind also die Ängste, Sorgen, die Ideen, die Trends, die aus dem System kommenden Signale, die Frühwarnzeichen für gerade stattfindende oder nötige Veränderungen? Was erzählen sich die Menschen darüber, wie sie die Krise erleben und verstehen? Und natürlich: wie kann auf dieser Grundlage kollektive Veränderung erfolgen? Wie kann hier ein neues, sinnvolles Narrativ entstehen?

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What do we need to know to develop good decision-making for both normal and complex conditions?

Despite the importance, impact and frequency with which we make decisions in our private and professional lives on a daily basis, the actual process of making a decision is surprisingly unknown to us. And that is the case, whether the decisions are made in normal or under complex conditions. Many people just don’t know how to do it: making good decisions.

For many people, decision-making is more like a process of guessing or betting on a result, be that what they eat in a restaurant to choosing a job or investing in the stock market. Many even inform themselves, ask the right questions, but when it comes to act of the actual decision, they muddle through, decide somehow, and hope for a good result.

The Black Box

From cognitive science (and here: Dave Snowden), we know that people make decisions through a way that is called “conceptual blending”: Being faced with a decision we scan only about 5%-10% of the information available and then do a first fit pattern match (not a best fit pattern match) with multiple fragmented memories in a subconscious process. This process, where we assemble some knowledge, blend in some memories, – especially the recently activated ones – leads then to a unique course of action, that often defies logic and insight. Since most of the time we are not aware of these processes, we have come to label this black box process “intuition” or “gut feeling”.

When asked about the actual decision-making process that other people could coherently follow, even senior leaders tend to a list of actions rather than coming up with a comprehensible process. People also often invent a story according to which the decision makes sense afterwards. It is strange that this story depends heavily on the result of the decision: if you were successful, the decision-making process is told very differently than in the case of a failure. Cognitive scientists call this phenomenon of experiencing or describing a decision as good or something that made sense in hindsight “retrospective coherence” – also not really a reliable process.

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The trouble with decision making (DM) as a topic is its complex character which is doesn’t lend itself well to unpack it in a linear modality. For as soon as we want to dive further into our process, we have to determine first which domain we are finding ourselves in: an ordered domain or a complex one?

Most people seem to conflate #risk with #uncertainty. However, risk can be calculated by algorithms and described by probability in stochastics.  Whether that is the probability of winning or losing at the casino or the risks of flying an airplane under normal conditions.

With uncertainty, all bets are off. The outcome cannot be known or calculated. Both conditions require very different approaches to decision making. The best decision under risk is not the best decision under uncertainty.

Interesting added dimension: DM researcher @Gerd Gigerenzer states that with high uncertainty and unstable conditions, with only little data available but many variables, experienced experts do better relying on their (trained!) #intuition or simple #heuristics rather than trusting complicated algorithms and calculation models as DM support. Novices should instead train their intuition first before relying on it. And for anything that can be calculated (risk), algorithms can help. Most DM researchers argue for a good mix of the use of intuition and formal decision making support.

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In the last blog I ended with establishing a baseline around decision making, drawing on the Lectical Decision Making Assessment (LDMA) and Russo & Schoemaker (“Winning Decisions”):
  1. Framing: the general goal of the decision maker including the way they think about the knowledge upon which they base their decision
  2. A realistic approach to gathering intelligence
  3. Coming to Conclusions: organising and analysing the information and a way to coordinate different perspectives (weighing)
  4. An approach to communicating and implementing the decision made
  5. Learning from Experience, including a way to measure the decision’s effectiveness so adjustments can be made

It seems that already the first step, Framing, is much undervalued, or even overlooked. The way we frame a problem exerts enormous control over the options we recognize, the data we collect and the solutions we choose.

Poor framing can lead people to sensible-sounding but fundamentally limited views of the world to structure their decision making process. According to Russo & Schoemaker (“Winning Decisions”), we experience frames when we meet people who just seem to immediately understand us. Or in the frustration of trying to talk with others who just don’t seem to get it, no matter how much we try to explain. Cognitive scientist call these different ways of looking at the world “frames”. They are mental structures that simplify and guide our understanding of a complex reality. Everyone must inevitable adopt some kind of simplifying perspective.

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With the amount of decisions that we make every day, it is astonishing that the process of making decisions is not well understood. So how do we make the best choice?

The very act of deciding seems a bit like the piece of soap in the bathtub: the more you want to get a grip on it the more it slips away. Much is talked today about VUCA conditions, and decision-making in complex adaptive spaces with highly uncertain outcomes, volatile ingredients and complex relationships are a different animal all together to deal with. Many leaders that we worked with, when asked to portrait their decision-making process in a way that it could be followed or repeated by others, tend to come up with a list of actions rather than a solid decision-making process. That made us curious. We ventured more into the terrain of choice-making.

The weird thing is that even in ‘normal’ conditions people are not aware of how they make choices. Some people pose their questions attentively, gather relevant information superbly and then “wing” it with the actual act of deciding. And then come up with a perfect explanation in hindsight.

So, starting to establish a baseline around decision making, let’s consider basic steps, drawing on the Lectical Decision Making Assessment and Russo & Schoemaker (Winning Decisions):

  1. Framing: the general goal of the decision maker including the way they think about the knowledge upon which they base their decision
  2. A realistic approach to gathering intelligence
  3. Coming to Conclusions: organising and analysing the information and a way to coordinate different perspectives (weighing)
  4. An approach to communicating and implementing the decision made
  5. Learning from Experience, including a way to measure the decision’s effectiveness so adjustments can be made

Outlook: In some next blogs I intend to bring in more and more layers of decision making, exploring input from different topics, authors, influenzers  and frameworks: Dave Snowden, Gary Klein, Bonnitta Roy, Gerd Gigerenzer, Andy Clarke; Lectica.org; concepts/models/ methods: Framing, Cognitive Biases; Intuition; Sensemaking; Cynefin Framework, OODA Loop, Risk vs. Uncertainty, Heuristics, Constraints, Learning, Failure, Innovation, Theory of Change….

This is a recent interview conducted by Joanne Wood for a partner organisation Rise Beyond, UK:

A conversation with Anne Caspari

Anne is a specialist in transformative processes and change, for both personal and leadership development. With a MSc/MPhil in Ecology and Environmental Development from Hannover University, Germany, she draws on three decades of experience with complex systems, adaptive pushback and obstacles to self-organisation. This knowledge, combined with more than 18 years of work on adult development (developmental coaching) and transformation gives her a unique edge. She works with teams and groups to tap into what is actually happening, uncovering obstacles and pushback in the business ecology and setting free team intelligence and alignment.

Jo: I would love to get an idea of what your focus is on at the moment.

Anne: We are focusing on both personal transformation and organisational change. And on the interfaces between both. For personal transformation we run courses at our retreat centre. The people who come are already quite aware of their patterns, just not sure how to integrate them. Some of them are also coaches and change professionals. What do they want to work on? It’s different for everybody, it could be in a job, money, relationship, health, something you are doing to keep you in a certain place, and you are sick and tired of it.. We work with them on the capacity to find these patterns, resolve the underlying resistance and the ability to deal with whatever it is, to be with what you normally push away into either the subconscious or outside of yourself. For example this could show up as blaming everyone else for triggering your anger.

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This picture below (please excuse yet another iceberg image, but it is so fitting) should be self-explanatory. This is also what we are doing in our Transformation Intensive Courses, where we go down to that level at day 2 (of a 7 days course). Then the real fun starts, cleaning up, lightening up and prototyping personal stuff. Just imagine what you could accomplish.

The only other thing that might need an explanation is shadow work and the Lucky Luke Move. If your reactive patterns, most importantly the ones you are now aware of, are called “shadow”, mostly from fans of Jung and some of us Integral Theory People. It is mostly things that you get triggered by or you don’t want to be with that stuff. Most of the time it is disowned and pushed to the subconscious and hidden there (hence: deeper iceberg layers), or pushed outside your self-boundaries and projected onto others. They seem the source of your reaction (hence: shadow). If you learn to be aware of, identify, and be faster than your f**cking fast shadow moves, you got it.  The picture above shows the Master at work: The Man who draws faster than his Shadow. While never quite reaching this level, this is what we do at the TI courses ;-). 

Group transformation processes, much like individual transformative processes, follow different phase with distinctly recognizable stages. According to these patterns, a skilled coach/facilitator can keep the individual or the group in the process. The main task is to counteract the conscious or unconscious attempts to escape or to sabotage the process because of phenomena that are considered uncomfortable, irritating or even painful (e.g. Scott M. Peck’s “Groan Zone/Authentic Chaos”/ R. Kegan’s “Immunity to Change”).   

Individual processes can take the form of individual coaching, intensive retreats in self-leadership with awareness based technologies. They are geared towards reintegrating disassociated parts of the self-system or the dis-identification with mapping errors in the meaning making system of the individual. Group processes can have different intentions that go from more coherence in teams, integrating pathologies, towards more authentic participation, innovation and other emergent properties. Most of the time they are not automatic and require facilitated and committed process work with the respective team or group. In an ideal case, group facilitation requires only those minimum elegant structures that keep the group in process while resisting the temptation to go with any of the easy solutions that inevitably pop up along the way, while constantly scanning the quality of presence that is arising in the group and mirror that back. This would ideally also require a kind of ‘process literacy’ of the participants; the ability to distinguish between the self and the (power) moves of identity. The phases and stages of these processes along with the phenomena normally showing up are pictured above. For further reading on the dynamics of group processes see Bonnitta Roy’s article in Kosmos Magazine or this chapter “We-Space Ecology” published on group processes in the book “Cohering the Integral We Space” (2016).

The process traps and the tools and method to counteract escape mechanisms are pictured in Slides below. Please note that the representation with the U-Figure is oversimplified, these processes are non-linear and can’t be followed as a recipe (e.g. “step 5: find deeper meaning and purpose”.) Each phase is emergent from the prior one and can’t be planned, forced, constructed, or jumped. The figure U makes only sense as a coherent view in hindsight and thus differs from the majority of Theory U applications.

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Complexity Coaches

“The temptation to lead as a chess master, controlling each move of the organization, must give way to an approach as a gardener, enabling rather than directing. A gardening approach to leadership is anything but passive.
The leader acts as an “Eyes-On, Hands-Off” enabler who creates and maintains an ecosystem in which the organization operates.”

― Stanley McChrystal, Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World

Coaching and Leadership from a Complexity Perspective 

Complexity science and application alter the way we look at change, transformation, leadership and organisational development.

Today’s leaders are asked to navigate in complex environments, while most of their technical skill sets enable them for more transactional, expert-style interactions. The distinction between complex and complicated domains has become a crucial one in the VUCA world, with a capital C for Complexity.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has made it quite clear that the world has become more volatile and unpredictable. Uncertainty and ambiguity are no longer buzzwords, but people have a felt sense of what it means to face these challenges for real on a daily basis in both personal and professional life.

“In a world where causality is systemic, entangled, in flux, and often elusive, we cannot design for absolute outcomes. Instead, we need to design for emergence. “ Ann Pendleton-Jullian

How to respond to an increasingly ‘white water world’ is the primary challenge facing today’s leaders and leadership, and it changes coaching and leadership development accordingly in these contexts. 

There is an emerging quality, a different dimension, that defines coaching and leadership development from a complexity viewpoint:

The complexity part signifies, that we draw on a multitude of perspectives based on a coherent theory and practice of leadership for today’s disruptive, volatile, and intensively networked society. We are committed to working with what is, with probing, sensing and safe-to-fail experiments for adaptive contexts.  

The coaching aspect means that we don’t come with ready-made solutions and recipes and that we enable our clients, private and corporate, to find their own solutions in the circumstances of their everyday challenges. However, complexity coaching goes beyond the aspect of bringing out the fullest personal and professional potential in a leader. It brings in the whole relationship with people’s embeddedness in different systems and environments. Complexity coaching looks as much at the systemic context, the ‘in-between’ and the relationship dynamics as well as the actions and skills of individual leaders. 

“Seeking the ideal has a long history, it produces many saints but few paradigm changes”. Dave Snowden

We work with developmental models and find them helpful in many ways, especially when working with leadership development. We draw on models from different researchers, such as Susanne Cook-Greuter (ego development), Bill Torbert (action logics), Robert Kegan (orders of consciousness and immunity to change) or Theo Dawson and her team (Lectica/LDMA). photo-1439337153520-7082a56a81f4-landscape

We work with developmental models where they are adequate in order to cope with ever increasing complexity in the VUCA world. We don’t focus on teaching people to think at “higher levels”. “Higher levels of performance emerge when knowledge is adequately elaborated and the environment supports higher levels of thinking and performance. We focus on helping people to think better at their current level and challenging them to elaborate their current knowledge and skills”  (Theo Dawson). Read More